We are driven by something much more significant than the conscious mind. That is why humanity keeps falling in the same loopholes, again and again, buying the second item for $0.01, believing that they are the ones who profit from the deal, not the trading company.
This same mechanics has been transferred to the virtual world and resulted in loot crates becoming a popular component incorporated in a lot of games.
However, as it turns out, the mechanics can be harmful to you, or at least way less beneficial than it seems.
Buzz Killer: When Statistics is Against You
Not many players consider the odds of obtaining a precious item, from Restricted and higher. All in all, $2.49 isn’t that much for a chance of winning a knife worth $350. As it turns out, those chances are ridiculously small, and saving money will get you the beloved skin faster than trying to win it opening endless crates.
Those who don’t want to risk their finances prefer to watch others open crates rather than try their luck, and subsequently, streamers that buy keys and open their containers obtained in-game appear quite frequently. ONSCREENlol, a popular streamer, opened 10,761 cases during a year, and a dedicated fan of both the vlogger and the statistics decided to calculate the probability of obtaining valuable skins, and the results are upsetting.
The sample of ten thousands of crates opened during a year is a sound basis for tracking accurate statistics. First of all, here’s the rank of skin rarity listed from most common to least common and, subsequently, their worth:
- White – Consumer grade
- Light blue – Industrial grade
- Darker blue – Mil-spec
- Purple – Restricted
- Pinkish purple – Classified
- Red – Covert
- Exceedingly Rare ★
The chances of getting something better than Mil-spec is one out of every five to six boxes. This sounds not that bad because prices for Restricted items range from $35 to $50. Ss the skins become rarer, the situation gets worse. Classified items display only a 3.2% chance of dropping, and Covert drop rate sits at 0.64%. This means you will have to open 200 cases to get a Covert item, which may or may not be the most desired skin in the game – a knife skin. Surprisingly, your chances of getting a knife, which technically belongs to Covert items, is even smaller and sits at 0.16%. This translates to one knife skin per 625 cases! Considering the price of a key, you will spend around $1,500 testing your luck. You can buy from 10 to 3 knife skins, depending on their quality and aesthetic properties with the same money.
Now check the infographics yourself and make sure that spending $2.49 on crates may not be the most effective use of your funds. What do you think – do microtransactions facilitate or ruin the success of the game?